Forecasting The Environment
Macroenvironmental and industry scanning are only marginally useful if all they do is reveal current conditions. To be truly meaningful, such analyses must forecast future trends and changes.
Environmental forecasting is a technique whereby managers attempt to predict the future characteristics of the organizational environment and hence make decisions today that will help the firm deal with the environment of tomorrow.
Forecasting involves the use of statistical and nonstatistical, or qualitative, techniques. Four techniques can be particularly helpful: time series analysis, judgmental forecasting, multiple scenarios, and the Delphi technique.
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